Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking Message Board

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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (2210)	8/27/2005 3:48:06 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 26015

As the Katrina intensifies, the area of the storm which could cause a catastrophe in New Orleans will tend to get larger, so Katrina does not have to come as close. Also as Katrina gets larger, the outer wind bands will be further in front of the eye. This can mean a little less time to evacuate before auto travel becomes difficult. I was reading one of the NOAA discussions of Katrina by Avila, who seems to be one of the senior forecasters who deal with the more serious situations. It doesn't take much reading to detect a tone that this Hurricane can become really intense with the hot water. A number of other weather people have a bit more strain in their voice and manner than they did for some CAT 3 Hurricanes last year. Has anyone else noticed this ? ************* excerpted from NOAA / Avila's 11pm est 8/26 discussion of Katrina - note the gasoline analogy, and the inclusion of the most aggresive intensity predicition - 131 knots **************** THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES. IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124 KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.

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