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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (2224)8/27/2005 4:23:42 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 26015
 
Near Miss Question -

"...would New Orleans then be off the hook from serious flooding if the eye hits at least say 40 miles to the east or west of the city? "

Katrina was a Cat 1 when it went near you.
It is both stronger and bigger now.

If I have read some of the New Orleans disaster preparation documents correctly, New Orleans is so vulnerable that it could be flooded by a strong Cat 2 Hurricane in exactly the right that moves with the tide.

I think your observation would be true for Cat 1 (which you experienced) Cat 2 and some weaker Cat 3.

Hurricanes usually have an intense wind & rain area off to on side of the eye, instead of being symmetrical.

Bigger means not only wider, but the Hurricane will take longer to pass over a given point - so instead a 50 knot wind pushing a storm surge of water for two hours, you get 65 knots for three hours.

More time for the wave to break over the levees, and with higher waves with higher winds.

Hurricane Intensity Scale -
Note the right hand columns on how high the water can go -

srh.noaa.gov

The Boat US has a diagram of the current wind field -

boatus.com

*******

So with Katrina being about a Cat 4, and considerably larger
the answer is No - even at 40 miles, there will significant risk (way more than 10%) that New Orleans gets flooded.
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