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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (68195)8/28/2005 9:44:59 AM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 

Manufacturing has become more energy efficient over time as energy prices have risen.


In fact energy costs have been on an overall downward trend over the last couple of centuries as the energy efficiency of the economy has consistently improved. This is because similar technical improvements to those that result in increased productivity from energy in manufacturing result in lower cost of extraction of energy. At least up till now. This is the real story of the industrial revolution - the energy constraint has been gradually relaxed.

The big question is whether that can continue into the future.


You believe there is a connection between this observation and the special revelation Grace received while in a psychotic state - namely her claim that the US manufactures 12 times as much as it did in 1945 - a time when the United States supplied virtually all manufactured goods for the entire global Allied War effort.


I haven't bothered to work out the numbers as the reclassification of all these industries means that it would take a bit of work to piece things back together accurately. From a rough look at those figures though the increase is near that order of magnitude in terms of real value volume, though 12 does sound a bit high. A back of the envelope calculation is that population has more or less doubled. GDP per capita has increased 3-4 times over and though manufacturing has declined as a share of current GDP, this is due mainly to lower price increases in manufacturing than in the rest of the economy. So 6-8 times increase in manufactured output sounds likely.

I wish she would give a source for the 12 number.
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