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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Rarebird who wrote (702)9/10/1997 10:10:00 PM
From: Highpockets   of 5676
 
To All
I've been lurking around here for a couple of weeks and really enjoy the exchange of ideas. Here is my contribution and it comes from the Fred Alger Management Market & Economic Review. Alger manages mutual funds so you have to factor in that their reports may be a bit self serving. Anyway, here are some comparisons between 1987 and now.

The dollar is strong not weak

Commodity prices have generally been soft, not rising rapidly

Inflation is not rising rapidly, some say there is no inflation

There is no banking crisis

Short term rates have not risen anything like 150 basis points during the course of 1997

Just prior to the '87 crash, there was talk of an $8 billion tax
increase. We just had a capital gains rate cut.

The long-bond is over 300 basis points lower than it was then.

This is not to say we are not due for a correction, but a crash?

Just thought I'd muddy the waters a bit.

Highpockets
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