Jeff - sorry to bring this up, but once again, ALYD's numbers and estimates don't add up.
This was taken from ALYD's web site
alydaar.com
As of Aug. 15th 1997, Gruder stated that ALYD has 270 employees
15 - U.S. Sales
10 - European Sales
165 - Production "team members"
80 - I assume are misc. personnel
Now using the figure of 5 people per "team", we would see that ALYD had 33 teams as of the above article dated Aug. 15th. (165 production personnel divided by 5 persons per team)
Now this is your statement :
"Now, if each team only did one chunk a month (1M lines -- the minimum size in ALYD's contracts), then, assuming a paltry 25 cents per line, that's still a whopping $250K gross, $225K net.
I assume you were stating that each "team" would be able to produce $250,000 in gross revenues per month.
Well, if that is the case then with current number of employees in production, and the number of teams they represent = (165 people = 33 teams of 5)
ALYD should be able to generate revenues of $8.25 million per month! (33 teams x $250K)
That means they should be able to generate $99 million in revenues without having to add a single person. Their 33 teams should produce 33 million lines per month and almost 400 million lines per year.
WHY THEN DOES ALYD STATE THAT THEY WILL ONLY GENERATE BETWEEN $10 to $15 million in revenue for year end 97 and that they may achieve only break even status at the higher end figure ?
WHY THEN DOES ALYD ONLY PROJECT REVENUES TO BE $50 million by year end 1998 after they plan to add an additional 200+ people ?
It is very simple. If ,as you say, each team should be able to produce $250K per month and we know from ALYD's own web site that they had about 165 people in production which equals about 33 teams of 5.
1. Then why aren't these 33 teams able to produce the $250K figure ?
2. Why does ALYD have to almost double current staff to hit the $50 million year end 1998.
(keep in mind that if ALYD doubles their staff to 600 people at an avg. of $50,000 per year, that would make their payroll cost alone = $30 million ) Total revenues for FYE 1998 could only be as little as $15 million. At 20 million shares outstanding that comes out to .75 per share. At current market price ALYD is trading at about 30 times 1998 est earnings.
Something doesn't add up here
If ALYD could really produce $250k per team per month, then with the current number of teams, they should be able to do a lot better than to just possibly break even by year end 1997. Yet, they keep adding more and more personnel and Gruder keeps throwing out these ridiculous numbers. |
