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Technology Stocks : Wintel's Demise
MSFT 514.77-0.4%Nov 4 3:59 PM EST
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To: Bill Jackson who wrote (116)9/10/1997 11:18:00 PM
From: Christine Traut   of 328
 
Bill/Punko: I don't want to get anyone too excited, but I think that the dream of universal 10M bandwidth may be closer than you think.

I 'discovered' ADSL early enough to buy a bunch of Amati at 4. Sold it at 30. :) I then got out because I knew enough about local telephone company economics and regulation to feel that ADSL was going no where because the companies that had control of the copper to your house did not really have a reason to install it.

I've recently learned that Lucent (and Nortel) are busy incorporating ADSL directly into their switch. I'll get into the details if you want, but it basically means that the local phone companies can provide ADSL with very little operational effort. As I see it, they will be able to provide it for much less capital investment than ISPs or cable companies with cable modems. And, if they want it, they will have an on ramp that will give them control of the ISP business. Even for a regulated utility, this has got to be awfully tempting.

The time frame for this technology is within a year. Lucent is planning 10BaseT connectivity with simultaneous voice connection.

I also believe that the Circuit Court log jam on the Telecom Deregulation bill will break up at about the same time. So we really could have significant, widely available bandwidth sooner than I had believed. Which, of course, only adds to the momentum of a network device model instead of a stand alone PC that happens to be networked.
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