Katrina: Cat 5 Hurricane plan for New Orleans was 25 years away
Posted by: McQ
The QandO Blog
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Reader and commenter JWG sends the following link to an article in "Riverside" which is a bi-monthly magazine published by the Corps of Engineers New Orleans District. The publication date of the following article is Sept/Oct, 2004, or about a year ago.
I've put the whole thing up because its short but amazing. And prophetic. But it also points to two things. That there were plans afoot to prepare New Orleans for a Cat 5 hurricane, and, even given those plans, the author wasn't particularly sure it would work.
I've also highlighted some of the things of interest which caught my eye.
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Old plans revived for Category 5 hurricane protection north shore to the Mississippi River, by Eric Lincoln.
Engineering and Project Management are determining costs for a hurricane protection feasibility study that could lead to a project to protect southeast Louisiana from Category 5 hurricane storm surges.
One of four alternatives to be investigated will include blocking tidal surges at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass. The concept was part of the original Lake Pontchartrain and Vicinity Hurricane Protection project.
In 1977, plans for hurricane protection structures at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass were sunk when environmental groups sued the district. They believed that the environmental impact statement did not adequately address several potential problems, including impacts on Lake Pontchartrain’s ecosystem and damage to wetlands.
Ultimately, an agreement between the parties resulted
in a consent decree to forego the structures at the Rigolets and Chef Menteur Pass. Instead, a “high-level plan” resulted, amounting to construction of a levee system around St. Bernard, Orleans, East Jefferson and St. Charles parishes.
The new initial feasibility study will look at protecting the area between the Pearl River and Mississippi River from a Category 5 storm. Subsequent studies will look at the area between the Mississippi River and Morgan City.
Four alternatives that would be studied in the initial feasibility report are:
- Construction of floodgate structures, with environmental modifications, at Rigolets and Chef Pass, along with levees extending from high ground on the north shore to the Mississippi River.
- Raising existing levees for greater protection.
- Construction of a gated structure and new parallel span to the existing I-10 twin spans to Slidell. The additional lanes could be used for evacuations and, during normal days, alternating traffic-flow during the morning and evening to aid Slidell commuters. This structure would include higher levees extending to high ground on the north shore and to the Mississippi River.
- Raising all existing levees except those in the Inner Harbor area. A structure at Seabrook and a navigation gate at the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) / Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) would close off the Inner Harbor area when storms threaten.
The impacts of coastal restoration projects will also be included as part the studies.
“Simply restoring the coastal wetlands and barrier islands will probably not be sufficient to protect the city from a Category 5 event,” said Al Naomi, senior project manager, “but it could reduce the surge elevations and result in cost savings to the Category 5 project.
“I hope that one of these alternatives will prove feasible and will be constructed.
We would then have the only Category 5 protection system in the country.” With that system in place, says Naomi, it would make sense to build shelters and other buildings to withstand Category 5 winds. Right now, few if any buildings in the city are capable of surviving a strong storm, and if they did, the water from the storm surge might finish them off.
“The new convention center or Saints stadium could be constructed to these standards, with electrical generators and other emergency equipment built in at a relatively small initial cost. Including the upgraded levees, we’re talking maybe $2 billion for a system that would protect the city.
“Compare that to damages from the storm, which could be as much as $100 billion, and 100,000 lives lost.
“A Category 5 hurricane hitting the city may be a once-in-a-500-year event …A Category 3 like Hurricane Betsy in 1965, or less, is more likely, and the existing levee system should be able to handle a storm like that.
“But there are no guarantees. One failure or overtopping of a levee could be catastrophic.
“The point is to eliminate that storm surge threat with one of these plans. Then we can build stronger buildings and stay in local shelters with the Red Cross, instead of spending eight hours in traffic trying to leave.
“The philosophy of what we do during a hurricane would change. We could spend more time protecting our homes and less time trying to get out of the city in these desperate evacuations.”
The cost estimate for the study will be discussed with the state Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD), the local sponsor, before being submitted to headquarters for funding. Right now, there is no money for the study in FY05, even though it is one of the most vital for a city threatened more every hurricane season by a potential Category 5 storm.
With federal funding, a cost sharing agreement could be arranged with DOTD, and the feasibility study could proceed, taking about five years to complete, with another 10 to 20 years for construction.
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Interesting and telling. They were actually, according to this article, at least 15 to 25 years away from any workable Cat 5 hurricane system. But they were looking at it. I'm going to stay away from the politics of this but you can draw your own conclusions. I simply thought it was some vital background info that needed to be aired about this particular event.
UPDATE: More interesting info. The article was written in 2002:
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After decades of division over who and what are most responsible for Louisiana's dissolving coastline, state officials, environmentalists, business leaders and scientists have found common ground on what they think it will take to fix the problem.
The often-combative factions are rallying around something called Coast 2050, a $14 billion, 30-year wish list of flood-control, water-diversion and coastal-restoration programs that would be the largest construction project ever undertaken. The plan is aimed at re-creating a historic mix of swamp, marshland and barrier islands by unleashing some of the natural forces that had been bottled up by levees and other flood-control projects in the past century.
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