Since I made that mention of ARO on 8/15, it fell through the LT of its large expanding triangle and has not re-entered the triangle, and that's bearish. That makes the 9-10 points of upside considerably less likely at this time. On the bullish side, it is still very oversold which means that some upside is portended, but whether it's two points or five I have no clue.
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[de][pb7!b17!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lc20]&pref=G
Overall, I think it could go either way but I now favor it either consolidating within a tight range or moving lower. In light of its recent LT break all prior bullish calls are off unless it makes a substantial move to the upside shortly, but I think that is unlikely unless it is pulled up by an index-wide rally.
Sometimes I think it's prudent to view ones TA calls through a thin veil of TA (sorry, Shack) and on 8/18 ARO reported their Q2 results of 13 cents/share from an expected 19 and sees a single digit sales increase for Q3 and Q4, which I think logically makes the bearish case more likely. But as I'm sure you're aware, the market has a nasty habit of behaving illogically. ;~}
What are your thoughts currently on ARO? |
