I would just like to say that I think there may be some choppy
water ahead, at least until the late October quarterly earnings report. I would not be saying this if the information-problem had been cleared up early, but in light of the earnings estimate revision
of this morning, I see some trouble ahead. The revision is not a downgrade perse, but looks alot like one, and I'm relatively sure that there is evidence of serial correlation in both upgrades and downgrades. The bottom line is that we can expect more downward revisions, especially if management cannot or will not clear the air, and there will be a downward shock to the price each time as (1) analysts' houses kick preferred clients out of the stock ahead of the recommendation revision and (2)other investors react to the news after the revision is made.
I will state the obvious by saying that, if they are correct (and a great deal of the research of all of us on this thread is an attempt to find out for ourselves what will happen to earnings)then the stock should probably be repriced. If they are not, then we can expect a nice boost to the share price when the 'revised' estimates get blown away in about 5 weeks (or possibly in the following quarter.) In any event, unless one has a screaming investment idea somewhere else that is sure to make money in the short term, best to ride out the storm.
Jess - PS - I'm doing quite well with Clarify (CLFY) right now. There's been a lot of action by folks going long close-to-the-money calls, so I think the issue might shine before long. jb. |
