Shocking post IMHO from CWEI today
<<Ivan, Katerina, and what we've lost...
by: adjointboy662 09/02/05 04:33 pm
Msg: 115881 of 115995
Here's something for the "It'll be alright soon" crowd to chew on. From 9/21/04 press release regarding Ivan:
This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 39.17% of daily production of oil in GOM which is approximately 1.7 million BOPD.
This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 22.69% of the daily production of gas in the GOM which is approximately 12.3 BCFPD.
Now, from today's release from Katerina:
Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,327,953 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 88.53% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today’s shut-in gas production is 7.248 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 72.48% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The key thing to look at here is not the amount of shut in, but rather THE PRODUCTION LEVEL BEFORE IVAN VS. THE PRODUCTION LEVEL BEFORE KATERINA. For oil, 1.7 mmbopd then vs. 1.5 mmbopd now, and for gas 12.3 BCFD then vs. 10 BCFD now.
Take your pick - depletion, hurricane destruction, whatever - the production picture in the GOM looks pretty grim however you slice it. I realize that there are some big deepwater projects slated to come on line, but it's pretty apparent which direction the wind is blowing...>> |
