This was published on 8th Oct 2004..
Dire predictions now New Orleans' reality
Below are excerpts from New Orleans' growing danger, a news story by Paul Nassau of The Philadelphia Inquirer. It was published Oct. 8 last year.
NEW ORLEANS -- From a helicopter above the Gulf of Mexico, Col. Peter Rowan [of the Army Corps of Engineers] could see that his first line of defense had been breached. Where Breton and the Chandeleur Islands had been, only pale green water now sparkled in the sun. Hurricane Ivan had pummeled the sand and grass barriers two weeks earlier, washing away much of them -- and the hurricane protection they provide for New Orleans.
A man-made bowl
The second line of defense is vanishing, too. Wetlands, which absorb much of the storm surge of approaching hurricanes, are disappearing at the rate of 28,000 acres a year, bringing the sea closer to the city.
So New Orleans, tucked below sea level between the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain, is in growing danger of drowning. A direct hit by a very powerful hurricane could swamp its levees and leave as much as 20 feet of chemical-laden, snake-infested water in the man-made bowl.
More than 25,000 people could die, emergency officials predict. That would make it the deadliest disaster in U.S. history, with many more fatalities than the San Francisco earthquake, the great Chicago fire and the 9/11 attacks combined.
''It's only a matter of time,'' said Terry C. Tullier, city director of emergency preparedness. ''Ivan just missed us by a hairsbreadth,'' he said. ``The thing that keeps me awake at night is the 100,000 people who couldn't leave.''
The root of the problem is location. New Orleans is hemmed in by 300-square-mile Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi to the south and west. Built on newly deposited alluvial soil, the city has been sinking ever since its founding in 1718. Draining land for development has made it sink even faster. And sea levels are rising.
18-foot walls
To protect the city from floods, the river and lake have been lined with levees, grass-covered walls as high as 18 feet. The levees keep the Mississippi in its channel, but they have exacerbated the loss of wetlands by cutting off the periodic flood of freshwater and sediment necessary for the wetlands' survival. And the levees would trap water in the city if they are overtopped in a big hurricane.
Rowan, the commander of the New Orleans district of the Corps of Engineers, said that for now, New Orleans would have to rely on luck, because protection projects take many years.
''We have been fortunate, and hopefully, we'll continue to be fortunate,'' he said. ``There always is a perfect storm, and we have not built for the perfect storm. The exact right combination would be catastrophic.'' |
