I have lived in both Tampa and New Orleans, so I would like to expand a little bit on your statement
The area of physical devastation would be similar, except Florida will drain quicker. Since there are now more people an d buildings in the Tampa Bay area, there will be more destruction and more economic loss.
I expect many more people will get out, however.
****a rough comparison *****
Tampa is built on sand, a little mud, and often under that limestone, like much of Florida. Tampa is close to sea level
New Orleans is built on mud, and not thick mud, but something as strong as a milkshake. You have to go half way to Baton Rogue 20-30 miles, to get more solid ground. As is well known, parts are below sea level and Lake Ponchatrain.
While St. Pete is isolated, with one way North (US19) which has many low areas, with rest of the transport being bridges, much of the rest of the area has multiple escape routes. There a three bridges across Tampa Bay, assuming the Skyway is shutdown early because of winds.
New Orleans has a big lake, swamps to the south, and a big river in the middle. The exit east, where the L&N railroad runs, is likely to be shutdown by wave action.
There is one bridge across Lake Pncahrain.
So the main escape route will be to the West.
Just turn the Tampa/St. Pete area 90 degrees counter clockwise, and the similarities are striking.
You can go South on a couple of 2 lane roads out of Jefferson Parish, but then you need to go West. Those roads are very low in many areas, and subject to flooding and traffic from the Delta people trying to leave.
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During the 1890s Hurricane, there was 10 feet of water in the middle of the interbay penninsula in Tampa, about where Bay to Bay crosses Dale Mabry Highway. That kind of storm surge will produce results like those seen in Mississippi, where whole areas are wiped clean, leaving only foundations. Much of St. Petersburg could end up the same.
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As poor as some of the people in Tampa and St. Pete are, many more of them have access to cars and are likley to leave. The literacy rate in some part of New Orleans is 40%, which is well under any place in Florida expect maybe the Bell Haven /Opa Locka area near Miami.
The percentage of elderly and people with medical conditions is similar.
One the relief side, Florida has far more airports, and many of them are close to the Tampa Bay area. We can expect the 3 big and 2 close in airports to be under water -
TPA international, Clearwater - St. Petersburg near Highway 60, Peter O Knight and Albert Whittig executiv airports.
I expect the Navy will send a submarine to inspect MacDill Air Force Base....
That may leave Vandenburg east of Tampa, Zephyrhills, Wesley Chapel to the north, and Pinellas park as the closest immediately open airports.
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One geological issue is the Mississippi could bust a levee, then bust through to Lake Poncahtrain, and find a new path to the Gulf of Mexico, completely bypassing the present Delta. The Hurricane surge could do most of the work for this. This could mess up shipping for a long time.
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Bottom line, John is right, the devastation will be the same.
The options for re building may be much better, however, as even MacDill will drain off.
Let me add that if you don't evacuate in with a Cat 4+, you can be just a dead. The fact that you may die slightly later after landfall and your body will be picked up about two days sooner than in New Orleans is unlikely to be much consolation.
And if you don't evacuate early, you can be almost as miserable, just not the hell of the SuperDome.....
See next post on possible TD 16 - |
