Volcano Story Below Jim Sinclair's blog.
Wednesday, September 07, 2005, 4:36:00 PM EST
Hey Buddy, Can You Spare a Two by Four?
The following story brings out a point that bears some thoughtful analysis. It seems as if the reconstruction work in New Orleans and in other communities hit by hurricane Katrina is going to require so much lumber that imports from abroad will increase to meet the expected need.
There are two things of note in that regards:
First, lumber prices domestically have gone thru the proverbial roof. For example, here in Houston local contractors are complaining about the high cost of lumber as they are being forced to resubmit bids to cover the additional expenses they are now occurring. Most certainly this is not a localized phenomenon. My guess is that we can look for higher lumber prices across the nation for some time as a result of this. The same goes for other related building items.
No doubt the geniuses at the BLS will come up with a way of “adjusting” lumber prices down since it is obvious that SA lumber is far superior to North American lumber. Therefore, the higher cost is offset by higher quality so the net effect is a wash and therefore the prices are not actually going up – contrary to what your poor eyes are telling you. Same goes for those SA nails that the story mentions. Aren’t hedonics great? My suggestion for these guys if they ever need jobs for some reason is to apply at David Copperfield’s studio for wanna-be magicians. They are perhaps greater illusionists than he is.
Secondly, rising lumber imports are just one more straw on the proverbial camel’s back of the burgeoning US trade deficit which, if we can believe the recent reports, is going to soar in the months ahead.>>
<<Once we toss into the equation the slowdown in getting US grain out of the port of New Orleans, thus crimping one of the few bright spots in American exports, it seems to me that the size of these trade deficits going forward will be something to behold. A great deal will depend on whether the trade numbers are calculated based on the point when the sales were booked as exports, at the time the order was placed, or the time the grain is actually shipped out.>>
What is particularly amusing is to read the musings of those “economists” who view the hurricane’s destruction as a boon to the US economy and therefore dollar positive. If that is the case, why stop with a hurricane? How about some earthquakes and raging fires to boot. For that matter, perhaps Mt. St. Helens could awaken once again.** If we could get enough of these, we should see the stock market rally to new yearly highs and the dollar soar.
Such “experts” would do well to read the early 19th century French economist, Frederic Bastiat, whose classic, “Broken Window Fallacy,” would quickly dispel such ludicrous notions. What is particularly eerie is that their glowing statements are for the most part unchallenged in the mainstream financial press.
jsmineset.com
** Hey I don't agree with that part. <g> South Sister Area may be the next to blow:
Posted 9/5/2005 11:19 PM
Oregon scientists monitor bulging ground
BEND, Ore. (AP) — A recent survey of a bulge that covers about 100 square miles near the South Sister indicates the area is still growing, suggesting it could be another volcano in the making or a major shift of molten rock under the center of the Cascade Range.
Recent eruptions at Washington's Mount St. Helens, pictured, have rekindled interest in Oregon's South Sister volcano.
USGS via AFP
Recent eruptions at nearby Mount St. Helens in Washington state have rekindled interest in the annual Sisters survey and its findings.
Oregon has four of the 18 most active volcanoes in the nation — Mount Hood, Crater Lake, Newberry and South Sister.
A recent U.S. Geological Survey report said monitoring is inadequate at all of them, with only basic monitoring at about half of the active volcanoes.
Unlike the volcanoes, the bulge gets an extensive annual survey to track its growth. Spread out across an area nearly as big as the city of Portland, it's centered about three miles southwest of the South Sister, about 25 miles from Bend.
The results of the late August survey won't be ready for weeks, but scientists have reached some conclusions about the bulge from past monitoring.
They say it probably began growing in 1997 and has been rising ever since at a rate of about 1.4 inches a year. It was first observed from space using a relatively new imaging technology known as radar interferometry that can measure changes in the Earth's surface.
The likely cause of the bulge is a pool of magma that, according to Deschutes National Forest geologist Larry Chitwood, is equal in size to a lake 1 mile across and 65 feet deep.
The magma lake is rising 10 feet each year, under tremendous pressure, and it deforms the Earth's surface as it expands, causing the bulge.
usatoday.com
Climbed the South Sister twice:
summitpost.org
Neat little lake right at the top:
summitpost.org |
