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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: valueminded who wrote (36744)9/8/2005 2:04:09 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Guys:
Where is this touted "deflation" 4 years and running on this thread: Lets see:.....

Any thoughts other then shorting the long bond which my mortgage effectively does . . . .

I suggest you short 10-yr treasury futures in size.
Then sit back and Relax.
Report back in three years.
After all, we ALL now completely understand that the last 4 years can safely be projected infinitely forward to the logical conclusion of interest rates at 36% in just a few years.

Might I also suggest buying more houses at 0% down. That strategy has worked very well for 4 years. Why can't that last forever?

Then again projecting current trends into the future would not have worked very well in 2000 when one might have projected the Naz to go to 20,000 or so.

Nonetheless, I am confident that today's trends will prove to be far sticker than previous trends thus any idea of deflation is preposterous simply because of what has transpired in the last 4 years. It's different this time you know.

Obviously today's trends are now guaranteed to last forever. That's why the VIX is so low. Speaking of the VIX I suggest shorting VIX futures as well since the last 4 years is proof the VIX is headed to zero. I think one can look at any trend now and safely project it will last forever. Yes indeed. Buy houses and short treasuries and short VIX futures in size.

Mish
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