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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking

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From: redfish	9/8/2005 4:30:36 PM
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Unofficial: 1500 UTC 9/8/2005 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST #5 This is an independent product Latest recon report shows 62 KT wind at flight level and an extrapolated pressure of 988 mb and considering the excellent radar structure the initial intensity is set at 55 KT. Ophelia continues to get better organized. WSR-88D data from Melbourne shows that Ophelia has an eye and convective eyewall especially on the south side. Ophelia will continue to strenghten as it is in a favorable enviornment (low shear and warm SSTs) to do so. There is some dry air to the storm's south which should inhibit any rapid strenghtening. This forecast brings Ophelia to a hurricane in 24 hours. Track reasoning remains unchanged.. still problematic. A shortwave trough will be coming off the U.S. east coast and will help to enduce some NE motion over the next 24-72 hours, therafter a ridge will build in over the SE U.S which will help drive the storm back to the west. The timing, position and the strength of this shortwave trough and mid-level ridge are crucial for Ophelia's steering. It should be noted that many of the models this morning are suggesting a looping motion. The GFS is the furthest right and the GFDL is the furthest left, this track is closer to the NOGAPS solution which is more of a compromise. This track forecast is a slight adjustment right of the previous one, but still indicates a anticyclonic loop in 3-5 days. Initial (1200 UTC): 28.6N 79.6W 55KT 12 Hour: 28.7N 79.8W 60KT 24 Hour: 29.1N 79.5W 65KT 36 Hour: 29.5N 78.6W 65KT 48 Hour: 30.1N 77.0W 70KT 72 Hour: 31.0N 74.5W 75KT USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR 96 Hour: 30.5N 75.5W 75KT 120 Hour: 30.2N 76.5W 75KT Next Forecast: 0300 UTC Forecaster: Cangialosi nwhhc.com

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