Ophelia likely to remain offshore through the weekend.
As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Ophelia remains a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph. However, intensification back to hurricane strength is expected to occur later today or Saturday as the storm remains over warm waters. The center of Ophelia was near 29.5 north and 78.9 west, or about 130 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida, and the storm is moving north-northeast at 5 mph. The minimum surface pressure is about 983 millibars or 29.03 inches. Tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles away from the center. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach with a tropical storm watch continuing northward from Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.
Once strengthening begins again, Ophelia could strengthen to a Category 2 storm, or even higher, this weekend. There will be a gradual turn to the northeast in the next 24 hours as well.
The main impact for Florida from this system over the next 24 hours will be heavy rain, mainly along the central and northern east coast of Florida. Rough surf and rip currents will continue along the east coast of Florida, especially north of Vero Beach, causing beach erosion and tidal flooding. There is also potential for rough surf and rip currents along the East coast of the U.S. as far northward as the mid-Atlantic states.
The forecast movement of Ophelia is a very complex issue. Ophelia will move north, then northeast, off the Florida coast Friday into the weekend as a weak upper-level trough of low pressure to the north of the storm influences it. This trough will then lift out to the northeast late in the weekend or early next week, leaving Ophelia behind. A large upper-level high pressure area will move into the mid-Atlantic States behind the trough, and should send Ophelia tracking back toward the coast, probably after making a loop out over the water. The location of the center of the high will influence where a potential landfall would be; the farther east that the high tracks early next week, the higher up on the Southeast coast a landfall would occur.
The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia will be slow, and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor the progress of Ophelia into next week.
As of 11 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Nate was located about 605 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, near 34.3 degrees north and 54.6 degrees west. Nate is now moving east-northeast at 24 mph, with this general motion expected through Thursday night and perhaps even Friday.
Tropical Storm Maria is still holding onto tropical characteristics over the North Atlantic, but will continue to make the transition to a strong extra-tropical storm over the next 24 hours. As of 11 a.m. EDT Friday, Maria is located at 40.9 north and 42.7 west, or 655 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The storm is moving to the northeast at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are still around 65 mph, but these will weaken somewhat as the storm accelerates on its northeasterly path.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin
A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is being closely watched for possible development. A large upper-level low over the western Gulf is venting the southern Gulf and central Gulf causing enhanced clouds and thunderstorms. As the upper-level low moves southwestward, the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche might become an organized tropical system in a couple of days and move northwest.
A tropical wave over the Caribbean along 79 west south of 20 north remains disorganized and is moving west at 15 knots. This wave is encountering a good deal of shear and shows no signs of development at this time.
A tropical wave along 64 west south of 20 north is interacting with an upper-level low located near the British Virgin Islands. This upper-level low might move west-southwest in tandem with the wave maintaining shear over the system. However, over time if the wave can slow down and the low move away to the west or southwest it could help vent the system and create better conditions for development. That could happen over the central or western Caribbean late in the weekend or early next week.
Another tropical wave close to 51 degrees west, south of 22 degrees north is moving west-northwest at 10-15 knots. A large area of dry air and African dust continues to wrap into the system killing thunderstorm development. This will limit further organization for the next few days.
Finally, a tropical wave along 24 west south of 20 north, moving west at 10 knots is encountering African dust and this will limit the ability for this system to produce thunderstorms. Without strong convection it will not be able to develop anytime soon.
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