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Non-Tech : ZOLT

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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (275)9/11/1997 11:42:00 AM
From: Jake Heib   of 970
 
You're right about McClaren using carbon fibers, as have almost all Formula I, Cart, etc. VERY high performance race cars. However, you can fit all the carbon fiber they use, in total, in my garage. In short, they are not a market, at least not one that Zoltek is going to sell out a line in. Further, all these bodies use finer fibers than Zoltek makes. Engineers can get better mechanical properties out of finer fibers as they can control orientation better and laminate theory design can accomplish more.

Further competitors structural fibers have both better tensile strength and modulus (stiffer). Toray has carbon fibers with 1,000,000 PSI tensile and about 48 MSI modulus. This compares to Zoltek's 550,000 PSI tensile and 33 MSI modulus. The racing market is not very price sensative and they pay upwards of a million for a body, but you better believe that it is the lightest you can buy. Formula I uses carbon/carbon brakes which sell for over $11K per set. They throw them away after each race, worn or not, they don't even check.

To my knowledge, no Zoltek fiber makes its way into racing brakes. Most use Pitch based fibers from Amoco Performance Products. Engineers tell me they have a better bite which is a fancy way of saying the coeffcient of friction (COF) is highest imediately, then tapers off marginally. Acrylic based friction materials do the reverse, they have a lower COF to start and goes up with temperature. This causes a steadily increasing braking force and drivers don't like that.

I have no position in this stock but am looking to short it. I think this company gives misleading information, overstates earnings, among many other maladies, and in short is going to be a classic wall hitter some day once the hype stops or becomes obviously bullshit.

Regards

Jake
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