Japanese Voters Hand Prime Minister's Party Large Victory
By Anthony Faiola
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, September 11, 2005; 1:00 PM
TOKYO Sept. 11 -- Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's ruling party won a landslide victory in Sunday's general elections as voters handed Japan's maverick leader a remarkable mandate to enact a new stage of broad reforms in the world's second largest economy.
The larger-than-expected triumph capped a bold gambit by the 63-year-old Koizumi, who had put his job on the line in search of fresh public backing for his agenda of economic reform, particularly the privatization of the $3 trillion postal service, as well as his vision for a stronger Japan more closely aligned with the United States.
His reshaped Liberal Democratic Party -- minus anti-reform hard-liners kicked out of the party in a landmark purge by Koizumi last month -- won at least 276 seats, its largest majority in the 480-seat lower house of parliament since 1990. It was a gain of 32 seats for the party, and its final seat total could perhaps exceed 300. The LDP's smaller coalition partner, the Buddhist-led New Komeito, was set to bring at least another 28 seats to Koizumi's side.
The big loser was the opposition Democratic Party, which had hoped to seize power from Koizumi and had called for a pull out of Japan's non-combat troops from Iraq along with a withdrawal of U.S. Marines from Okinawa. Instead, it appeared set to lose dozens of its 177 seats.
While seen as a boon for Japan's halting reform effort, Koizumi's new mandate is likely to continue a time of high tension in East Asia -- particularly with neighboring China. Koizumi's four-year tenure has seen the region's two great powers escalate disagreement over disputed drilling rights to natural gas reserves in the East China Sea and a debate over Japan's perceived lack of contrition for past war crimes.
Koizumi's win came after his extraordinary makeover of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-World War II era. Koizumi, 63, who has been dubbed "Lion Heart," last month kicked out party hard-liners who had opposed his reforms. At the same time, he brought in women and younger candidates who backed his agenda for change, creating dazzling political theater as he pitted his "assassin" candidates against the ousted old guard.
"I have destroyed the old LDP," a victorious Koizumi told reporters Sunday night. "It has become reborn as a new party."
He was able to focus the public debate largely on the postal service as a symbol of his move to overhaul Japan Inc. The service, essentially the world's largest public bank, has a bloated, nationwide work force of 380,000. Its huge reserves have long been used as backdoor financing by old guard Liberal Democratic legislators for pork-barrel projects in their home constituencies. Postmasters -- jobs often passed on from father to son -- have been used as unofficial campaign aides on election day.
While rural Japanese remain largely opposed to reforms, Koizumi's bid stirred up record support from young, urban and unaffiliated voters for whom the ruling party had long been anathema. "I never voted before, but this time I came out to bet on Mr. Koizumi," said Daisuke Muramatsu, a 24-year-old Tokyo event planner. "Koizumi is riding high. I like his resolute character and his aggressive attitude. These are Japan's biggest round of reforms since Meiji Restoration" in the 19th century "and I'd like to give Koizumi a chance to pull them off," Muramatsu noted.
Koizumi, analysts say, is now likely to rapidly push his postal privatization package through the upper house, whose rejection of it last month and prompted Sunday's showdown. Indeed, Koizumi dissolved the lower house because he does not have the authority to renovate the upper house -- though he is betting its members will not dare to ignore the public's clear support for change.
Armed with a massive base of support in the lower house, Koizumi, economists say, will need to ensure that those elected on his reform platform now follow through. He will also have no excuse not to push ahead with other major reforms -- including revamping social security in the world's most rapidly aging society.
Though Koizumi has been criticized often for moving too slowly on reform, economists already credit his administration with major progress on cleaning up Japan's bad loans from the 1990s. Bolder steps now could further boost confidence in the fledgling economic recovery here. The stock market and employment are rebounding after 15 years, which could prove a shot in the arm for the global economy.
"Privatization of the post office will be taken as a sign that Koizumi has entered the next and larger phase of reforming Japan," said Robert Feldman, chief economist for the investment bank Morgan Stanley in Tokyo.
Koizumi is likely to continue to push for a historic change in Japan's pacifist constitution which currently forbids the nation from maintaining an official military, analysts say. Such efforts, coupled with Koizumi's annual visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine honoring Japan's fallen warriors, including World War II criminals, have left China and Japan significantly at odds. Only days before Sunday's vote, China for the first time dispatched five warships near contested natural gas fields in the East China Sea. Beijing, over Tokyo's strong objections, plans to begin tapping gas in that area over the next several weeks. A Japanese defense official said Japan's Maritime Self Defense Forces would be conducting their own exercises in international waters to send "a message to Beijing" that Japan is no longer willing to stand idly by.
Koizumi, President Bush's closest ally in Asia, is also moving to fortify the U.S.-Japan alliance to check China's rising might. Frustrated by Japan's inability to gain a seat on the United Nation's Security Council, the Koizumi administration has indicated it may also take a harder line at the world body. Japan now shoulders almost 20 percent of the U.N.'s budget, and will demand a reduction of those fees at the General Assembly meeting in New York starting on Sept. 19 unless Tokyo is assured that it will have clout commensurate with its contribution, according to the Yomiuri newspaper.
Today's elections saw Japan embrace a U.S. style of personality politics and media-driven campaigning, with the charisma of the prime minister playing a big role in the Liberal Democratic victory. The 12-day campaign saw Koizumi easily capture the limelight from his stoic opponent, the Democratic Party's Katsuya Okada. By remolding the Liberal Democrats, Koizumi was able to negate claims by the Democratic Party that only it could reform Japan.
Okada fulfilled his pledge to resign if he fell short in today's voting, an event likely to leave the opposition in disarray and strengthen a system in which only one party -- the LDP -- has long dominated. Koizumi, Japan's longest ruling prime minister since the 1980s, maintained Sunday that despite victory he will still step down at the end of his current term next September. But some people close to him have suggested he may seek another.
"Mr. Koizumi will command concentrated power," said Jun Iio, professor of political science at Tokyo's National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. "What will he do with the power? He'll surely privatize the postal system. But other issues are unclear. As for diplomacy with Asia, we know this much: Japan's relations with Asian neighbors won't improve as long as Koizumi is in office." |
