re: What was hidden? The fact that people would not want to evacuate?
I will tell you from personal experience, nobody wants to evacuate. As a storm approaches, it's an hour, by hour, by hour decision. You weigh what the "authorities" say, what the forecasters says, what you personally think is going to happen. But the last thing you want to do, especially a day in advance, is to just abandon your home... when the odds are that it will miss you (regardless of the forecast, they usually miss the forecast spot).
Hurricane Charlie last year was just like Katrina, except weaker. For two solid days it was aimed directly at Tampa as a cat 2. Few people will evacuate a car 2, just really low lying areas and mobile homes. 4 Hours out of Tampa, it went from a category 2 to a category 4 in about 1 1/2 hours... then took a sharp turn to the right and went inland. Where it hit, nobody thought about evacuating... where we were, dead center for two days... we got a little wind and a little rain, nicer than your normal summer afternoon.
80% evacuation is impressive. I've never seen it, anywhere. I don't think this area could ever accomplish 80% evacuation... I'm surprised New Orleans did. Most looked at Katrina, a real SOB of a storm, they listened to the forecasters, they listened to their officials (first ever mandatory evacuation) and those that could got the hell out. Some wanted to stay, some couldn't figure a way out... no surprise there.
But I don't think you can blame local official that one out of five stayed... I think they get credit that four out of five left.
John |
