Taking the liberty to repost this here.
I don't know where to begin this post
by: Todd1956 09/14/05 10:11 am
Msg: 119363 of 119366
I just got a detailed 2 hour report from my best friend who is in charge of a great part of the BP GOM exploration and production program. The news he gave me is almost overwhelming but reinforced my own developed opinions as to the energy situation just ahead of the US. First off was the simple facts of 7 offshore platforms completely gone, never to be replaced, and an estimated 6 to 10 more so badly damaged that they too are going to be abandoned forever. They will be plugging these wells, all of them as the costs associated with repair and replacement exceed the reserve values left to be recovered by any means. His estimate of lost production from these alone is .5 B/Day and 100,000 BBls / day.
That's just the start of the problems though.
His assessment of their onshore pumping stations/terminals/processing facilities was simply: " A F_ckin Disaster" The Destin system going to Pasagoula is in complete shambles and until the water resides and all electical motors, panels, equipment etc will have to be replaced BEFORE pipeline integrity pressure testing can even begin . The problems in South Pass block 62 are almost complete as everthing that could be destroyed IS. The Placamines Parish on shore facilities , storage tanks , buildings terminals etc are almost a total loss as of today's assessment but will have to be replaced and repaired before anything can be exported off the remaining GOM wells that use these systems. His info went on to other Majors with similiar damage but the Shell Mars assessment is that they are trying to get ships, barges and repair equipment from Trinidad so that they can cut all lines loose , untangle the twisted mess and begin bypass construction to get these pipelines back into operational status, after testing of course which isn't even being considered timeframewise now. The major problem even after pipeline integrity is established is that any gas with associated liquids cannot be passed through since the liquid handling termianls are not able to take the crude.
Now as to future development and exploration the costs have risen exponentually due to risk premium now shown to be real and the costs that platforms will now have to be above the 56' above water old standard and wind specs increased should they decide to be put back in harms way. As will all other terminals, pumping stations, associated production equipment to boot. They are basically selfinsured with some outside exposure benefits
however the loss is HUGE ..
His best estimate as to how quick another couple B's come from the GOM was next year , but definitely not soon enough for this winter.
His information is making me so bullish for NG in the US going forward that I have to sit back and think about the negatives especially those being people not being able to heat and potential loss of life that this could cause. to a minimal worry of mine is the US economic effects which IMHO will most assuredly result in some sort of recession after these energy costs are realized this winter. There is so much more that I'm privy to but I'm going to stop here as there is no way I could possibly cover all the topics and related topics to this catastophe to our country's energy situation.
Use this info as you wish , believe it or not, but we are going to face a very difficult task to get back to where we were a month ago IMHO.
My real opinion is that is ain't gonna happen at all.
TRADE WELL and PROSPER...TODD
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