Tom, the 21st century has just got underway. There are 6 billion of us crowded into a planet which is much as 100 years ago, apart from some swanky gadgets which have enabled even closer packing than previously and some other swanky gadgets which enable 20 megaton explosions, and other gadgets which link us all together, around the world in 80 hours, not 80 days.
The potential for carnage is enormous.
I don't believe we have reached the end of history. The fun has just begun. It's one vast experiment, run in real-time, with no going back. Given the history of human inventions, it's almost certain to end in a big crash, search for the guilty, punishment of the innocent, etc.
It is good to have canaries to warn of danger in the mine. Some of us might as well escape if we can. We can't all be experts in everything. Don't confuse a canary with a vulture.
H5N1 is obviously a contender for creating the first big body count. It works on humans. It does a splendid job with a kill rate of half the people infected, few of whom were particularly old, sick or very young. Of those over 60, as with sars, I expect the kill rate will be even greater. The old age pension problem, of governments running out of money for them, might be solved in two years.
All H5N1 needs is a bridge to the future, such as H7N7, to make H12N8 which would be both virulent and fatal. It is having a look around for a suitable bridge each time it infects another person. It's a numbers game. Will the birds die out and H5N1 fizzle before H5N1 finds a way into the new country to populate?
Some of us think it quite likely.
Mqurice |
