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Strategies & Market Trends : Moomin Valley (formerly Troll-free Zone)

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To: Gush who wrote (1093)	9/15/2005 11:41:27 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) of 2852

Here's a hit list.... there's a lotta potential targets. First, there's 59 stocks in the $DJUSRE index: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Then there's the homebuilders: finance.yahoo.com Then there's REITs: inrealty.com finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com One strategy could be to identify stocks that are already deteriorating with respect to the sector, and the market in general, but that are still fairly strong. I've done that successfully with gold stocks before. So, you would do a comparison with similar stocks within the sector, and you would also do a comparison with the general market indices. The idea is that both the strongest stocks and the weakest stocks are probably best avoided; the strongest might hold up better, as traders sell the mediocre or weakening stocks but are more reluctant to dump sector leaders, and the weakest ones don't have as far to fall. The ideal stocks using this approach would be those that are in the upper 50% - 75% of the sector in terms of relative strength (compared to the sector as a whole). Then, you want to see a downtrend in that relative strength over a period of several months, indicating deterioration. Beyond that screen, things I'd like to see would include high valuations, low short ratio, high debt ratio, and low earnings growth. ....all IMHO, of course.... T

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