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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Live2Sail who wrote (41594)9/18/2005 4:30:53 PM
From: Lizzie TudorRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
It looks a lot like seasonal weakness. I'm not saying things are tanking, just that I see asking prices that are less ridiculous than the prior outrageousness.

I don't know how long you have lived here? In the early 90s there definitely was seasonal weakness in RE. I think that disappeared starting in 96 with the boom. Everything on the market just sold. This is the first I remember of seasonal weakness for a long time, I mean maybe 8 years.

As for pricing, prices rise for about a year into a decline. I don't know if this is some sort of statistical anomaly or what. I just read prices rose from the prior month here in San Mateo. That is just not true. This month sellers are happy to get an asking price bid. A few months ago it was multiple offers, big difference, huge difference in fact.

In the last RE bust, the truth is that for the kind of houses I was looking at, prices really did fall 40%. Statistics didn't show that though. The reason they fell so hard is that in the prior boom you had to overbid and in the bust none of that occurred, additionally asking prices fell so it was a huge decline. I'll bet that prices are actually *down* 10% in my area right now from where they were 6 mos ago.
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