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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: bentway who wrote (170942)	9/19/2005 6:34:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Current prices are not low. They are higher than they will be in future because at current prices, all sorts of sources of energy are cheaper than oil. It's just the difficulty of shifting to alternatives in a short time which allows supplies to charge so much. People have bought their SUV already and have to fuel it, so they have to pay. But those buying vehicles now will be buying smaller vehicles which use less fuel. Note the popularity of the Toyata Prius for example. Now is the time to sell oil as fast as one can, before prices drop. Buying it and hoarding it in expectation of $100 a barrel is risky. BP's John Browne says it's too expensive and BP won't be investing in $70 oil [meaning buying reserves at that price]. I'd bet on his judgment on that. So far, he has had a few decades of being right. That's why he's in charge. The USA used oil when it was very cheap and developed the world's biggest economy partly based on that. But really, it wasn't that big a deal. Microsoft for example, requires almost no oil to make a big lot of money. The world isn't about oil now. Nor was it ever. Oil was always a relatively small part of even the USA economy. Mqurice

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