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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (41866)	9/20/2005 1:30:41 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Date: Tue Sep 20 2005 12:45 trotsky (more) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved an important feature of the recent breakdown in both homebuilder and various real estate stocks ( look e.g. at the collapse and emerging downtrend in JOE ) is the fact that it's occurring on high trading volume. JOE has seen some of its highest trading volumes in years upon breaking its previous uptrend and beginning its plunge. this is a sign that institutional sponsorship of the stock is gone - the big guys have sold. usually that means the downtrend has some way to go. Date: Tue Sep 20 2005 12:36 trotsky (@homebuilder stocks) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved many of the stocks in this sector are suffering serious technical breakdowns of late. i had planned to short the next bounce, but now it's actually beginning to look doubtful that such a bounce will eventuate. supports are getting blown away left and right ( of course, insiders have been huge sellers of these stocks for months now, so this isn't exactly a big surprise ) . with the last hold-out ( many of the companies financing the housing bubble have seen their stocks crumble for quite some time, with Fannie Mae in the lead ) in housing bubble land coming under pressure, one should perhaps begin to wonder whether that particular bubble hasn't topped out for good a few months ago already ( recall, i opined that it had, but that no-one had realized it yet - on a hunch ) . a nation-wide average of median prices has seen its biggest decline in years over the past few months. is the party finally over?

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