Bob, what matters in the oil bet is the price at which competing energy sources and ways of living compete.
The idea that 2 billion Chinese and Indians will own Hummers and roar around on freeways as Americans do and therefore the world will run out of oil and the price will go to $100 or $200 or $500 is false.
There's a lot more to life than burning fossil hydrocarbons. Moving around can be done in a lot of ways. Staying warm can be done with insulation. Staying cool can be done by losing weight. Get fat in winter, thin in summer! <g>
At $50 a barrel, there are many competing technologies which will whittle away oil's market share. Whittling takes a bit of time, so for 3 or 5 years, oil producers will have a great time. Then, prices will fall as the competition between oil and alternatives heats up and oil gets cheap enough to stop competing ideas gaining ground.
If H5N1 in H12N8 form [humanized avian flu] becomes rampant, people will lose interest in crowded places like airlines, airports, restaurants, crowded malls and so on. That should save a lot of driving. People will stay home and order online, getting deliveries to their door. With 1 billion people being dead, that should save a lot of oil consumption too, but oil production capacity won't fall as oil wells and refineries are capital intensive and don't need lots of people to keep them running.
Mqurice |
