Some people will get better anyway, perhaps 90% by the time a human-human strain makes the rounds, so taking Tamiflu and getting better will not mean Tamiflu helps at all. What will matter is if 95% of those taking Tamiflu recover where only 85% of those who do not take it recover.
I'm wondering, beyond an expert's opinion that Tamiflu *might* help because it works against swine flu and so, why not give it a shot?, is if there is any clinical evidence to support a position that Tamiflu will help against bird flu? IN other words, at this point, is it simply a complete guess? I seriously doubt anybody who's been infected with bird flu has been given Tamiflu (based on demographics), and if they have, it would be hard to endorse Tamiflu given the 60-90% fatality rate of bird flu victims.
Going back a stretch to the black death years, there were those who thought smoke impeded the communicability of the plague; others thought breathing through a cheesecloth-wrapped bag of medicinal herbs and plants from the local the apothecary would protect them; others thought that cats carried the disease and so killed off all cats. No matter how strong those opinions were, the false remedies had no effect.
However, in Tamiflu's case, maybe there is something to it beyond wishful thinking, hope, and what else is there to try? |
