Louisiana Senate Runoff Comes Down to Margin of Error
By Jeff Johnson
CNSNews.com Congressional Bureau Chief
December 06, 2002
Capitol Hill (CNSNews.com) - The day before balloting begins in Louisiana's runoff election for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Mary Landrieu, polls showed Landrieu and her challenger, Republican State Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik "Suzie" Terrell, in a statistical tie.
A Mason-Dixon poll Monday showed Landrieu leading Terrell 48-43 percent. But that was before President George W. Bush visited the Pelican State Tuesday. Bush remarked that the last time he had been to the state was on Sept. 11, 2001, and said that memory caused him to again be thankful for the freedoms all Americans enjoy.
"So I'm here in the great state of Louisiana urging all the citizens, Republicans and Democrats and folks who could care less about political party, to go to the polls this Saturday.
"But I've got a suggestion," Bush continued, to laughter from the audience of Terrell supporters. "For the good of Louisiana, for the good of everybody in Louisiana, Suzie Terrell needs to be the next United States senator."
Bush added that he considers Terrell "the kind of person with whom I can work to get something done for Louisiana."
Bush's visits to Shreveport and New Orleans, highlighted by a photo opportunity with the president and Terrell stepping out of Air Force One together, achieved their apparent goal.
In a Mason-Dixon poll conducted Tuesday, Terrell was ahead of Landrieu 49-46. When the margins of error for the two polls are factored into the equation, the race is a statistical "dead heat."
Political observers predict that the contest will be decided almost solely on voter turnout. John MacGinnis, editor of a weekly newspaper on Louisiana politics, said earlier this week that "Landrieu has to get a good black turnout.
"She has to work really hard at it," MacGinnis told the Washington political newspaper The Hill.
MacGinnis criticized Landrieu's limited get out the vote effort for the general election.
"That's the reason why she fell 50,000 votes short," he suggested.
Terrell has the benefit of having a larger potential pool of voters from which to draw. While Landrieu garnered only 46 percent of the Nov. 5 vote, forcing the runoff, three Republican challengers - including Terrell - earned a combined 51 percent.
Landrieu has attempted to position herself as a "moderate" Democrat, claiming on her campaign website that she is "one of the most moderate members of the United States Senate."
That effort has been hurt by her voting record, which includes votes against the confirmation of Attorney General John Ashcroft as well as school voucher programs and medical savings accounts. Landrieu has a lifetime rating of 14 out of 100 from the American Conservative Union.
Celebrities and politicians have also turned out to help Landrieu secure her political base among African-American voters. But that list of supporters also complicates Landrieu's efforts to claim that she is not a liberal.
Civil rights activist Rev. Jesse Jackson has endorsed Landrieu, and she has campaigned with Democrats, including House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member John Conyers (Mich.), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (Tenn.) and Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D.C.), three of the most liberal members of the House.
Landrieu also introduced a House bill in the Senate to allow taxpayer dollars to fund a needle exchange program for illegal drug users in the District of Columbia, which Norton represents.
While the new Republican Senate majority will not be changed by the outcome of the Louisiana election, a Terrell victory could give Republicans more leverage should Democrats attempt to filibuster on issues such as making tax cuts permanent or confirming conservative judicial nominees.
Terrell would also help offset so-called "moderate" Republicans such as Senators Lincoln Chafee (R.I.) and Susan Collins (Maine), who frequently vote against Bush on social issues.
In the Nov. 5 election, 49.8 percent of Louisiana's registered voters cast ballots, according to the Secretary of State Fox McKeithen. He projects Saturday's turnout to be in the 40-45 percent range. Polls will open at 6 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. |
