2005 - Anadys Drug May Become Cornerstone Hepatitis Therapy
Peter Kang, 09.21.05, 4:05 PM ET
Anadys Pharmaceuticals
Credit Suisse First Boston initiated coverage on Anadys Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: ANDS - news - people ) with an "outperform" rating and said the company's experimental drug ANA975 has the potential to become a "cornerstone therapy" for hepatitis C.
Anadys is a development-stage biotech focused on toll-like receptor (TLR)-based therapeutics and structure-based drug design, according to CSFB. "ANA975, an oral TLR 7 agonist, has peak sales potential in excess of $1 billion in hepatitis C," said CSFB.
"ANA975 could be a cornerstone therapy replacing interferon alfa and complementing direct antiviral small molecule drugs in combination regimens."
The research firm said it predicts an approval and launch in 2011 and values the drug at $12 per share.
"ANA975 for hepatitis C is the clear value driver in our Anadys model and valuation analysis.
We assign it a 33% probability of success in hepatitis C," it said. "Should the next round of clinical studies continue to validate ANA975 development, significant stock upside could exist, based on anticipated probability adjustments."
CSFB projects peak sales potential of $300 million for Anadys' other drug candidate, ANA380, currently in Phase II testing for hepatitis B.
The research firm placed a $19 price target on the stock. "At its current $350 million market capitalization, Anadys trades at a 65% to 80% discount to Idenix Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: IDIX - news - people ) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: VRTX - news - people ), despite having established proof of concept with its two lead drug candidates and technology validation from a major corporate partnership."
However, CSFB projects
Vertex and Idenix to launch their lead drugs two to three years ahead of Anadys.
Anadys forged an agreement with Novartis (nyse: NVS - news - people ) last June to commercialize ANA975.
The deal is potentially worth up to $570 million, with an upfront payment of $20 million and milestone payments of up to $550 million.
THE ABOVE IS FROM FORBES ...
forbes.com.
regards,
John McCarthy |
