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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: KLP who wrote (171339)9/27/2005 3:46:41 PM
From: cnyndwllr  Read Replies (3) of 281500
 
Karen, the foundational assumption of the article is correct but it is used in a manner that is fatally flawed. I.e.:

In the end, history will prove you right – or wrong. But as of today, we simply don’t know how things will turn out in Iraq. Read the last sentence again, slowly, because it really is the heart of the issue. We are in the middle of a war and no one – absolutely no one – knows whether we will win or lose it.

That's correct in the sense that the future is never 100% predictable. For black and white thinkers that might be enough of reason to hold off on recognizing a failed policy but for many of us who make decisions every day based on risk/reward assessments, it's not a reason to reject the realities of the Bush American/Iraqi adventure.

When the odds of success keep getting smaller, when the costs keep getting greater, when miracles are in short supply, how do we make decisions? Do we shut out the facts and claim that we have too much invested to quit now or do we cut our losses?

I'd restate the realities of Iraq by paraphrasing the open letter's statement to say:

We are in the middle of a war and no one – absolutely no one – can be absolutely sure whether we will win or lose it. What we can be sure of, however, is that the costs have far exceeded our direst expectations and that the odds of success have shrunken to the point where carrying on cannot be supported under any kind of rational cost/benefit basis.

Ed
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