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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Mr.Creosote who wrote (42432)	9/27/2005 7:02:56 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

I'll take a shot at from the "liquidity" side. There's a last residual of it around in the form of TIOs and some Fed "hurricane blast" repos (21.5 roll off Wed and Thurs) and coupon passes: bullandbearwise.com It's going away, and we are entering into a tough period for Treasury financing, there's always if's (the FCB's come back big? or very large Fed monetizing?), but that will really pressure all the markets. Tax receipts can be tracked here (table IV), might be important now: fms.treas.gov Steve Northwood covers this aspect in his 26 and 27th writings: wallstreetexaminer.com Add to that, the FCBs are really MIA, having actually liquidated $10 billion in the last three weeks. I think we now get another perfect storm (on top of the very serious energy one). Even without those issues, there's no real money around for stocks: idorfman.com That's high too, there's been seven straight weeks of domestic equity fund outflows since.

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