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Technology Stocks : General Lithography
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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (584)9/11/1997 9:46:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 1305
 
Andrew,

I disagree! While we have speculated on 200 systems at $7M a throw, each speculation cited the risk that this scenario might not be realized. In fact, we have bought into the market's opinion that SVGI is not the equal of its competitors.

I have thought of SVGI as the UGLY DUCKLING of photolithography. My scenario is that SVGI is not a "duckling" (ducklings make I-line steppers) but a baby "swan" (swans make step and scan tools). To follow the analogy, when the industry reaches the point that step and scan is key, only the "swan" will have the experience and the goods.

I read that Nikon is switching production to its new step and scan tool. Is it possible that production problems with the new tool are the cause of the CYMI order slippage?

Is it possible that the "ducks" will eventually be required to license and build the "swan's" step and scan system for, say, $1M a throw?

Your the expert. How delusional am I?

Cary
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