Snips from Raging Bull thread:
My take on 2005 Numbers and target price:
Q1 actual = $0.17; Q2 actual = $0.18; Q3 est = $0.25 (I believe TRLG will beat the Q3 estimate). TRLG will have earned over $0.60 / share in the first 3 quarters of 2005 alone. Add another very conservative $0.20 / share for Q4 and we are easily over $0.80 per share for 2005 (roughly 21 times earnings).
With 2006 guidance at $1.12 to $1.15 TRLG management is forecasting 35% growth. Peg the 2005 PE ratio at 1 to the growth rate, and TRLG should be priced at 35 times 2005 earnings of $0.80 per share, or $28. Even at a PE of 25, TRLG should still be over $21 right now.
My target is somewhere b/w $21 and $28 right now.
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After spending the prior week with management, we continue to feel very comfortable that the company will either meet or beat our 3Q05 sales and EPS guidance of $29.6 million and $0.24, respectively. In addition, we feel very comfortable with our FY05 sales and EPS estimates ($93.8 million and $0.77), and our FY06 sales and EPS estimates ($135.1 million and $1.14)....investors seeking to gain exposure to a luxury denim company on the cusp of becoming a much larger luxury-oriented brand.
• Reiterate our BUY rating and an $18.00 12-month price target.
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I sent an email to TRLG corporate. I just got the response today:
"Per your request, the target date for our retail store opening in Manhattan Beach, California is November 15, 2005. Please feel free to request additional information through our website, and thank you for your interest in True Religion Brand Jeans!"
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people might be coming to the reality that after q2 earnings are released, this company COULD be in the top 5 or top 10 of the ibd100. the RS rating will be 99 as long as the price stays above $15. the eps rating may be only a quarter away from jumping to 99 because reality is that their earnings and revenue growth is phenomenal.
if we see a new america article before earnings are released, i'd be pretty comfortable that IBD's proprietary formula is ready for TRLG to jump into the top 10 on their list after earnings are released.
the $16's may look awfully cheap here any time in the next few weeks. |
