Peak Oil, taking down nations one at a time.
Saturday, September 24, 2005
If you think 3$ gasoline is expensive, think again.
The calculations indicate that oil would have to go to US$129 per barrel before Japan suffered a shock comparable to the 1979 second oil price shock. By contrast, the US and EU were far more vulnerable, as prices would only have to go to US$81 or US$77, respectively, before they suffered damage on the scale of 1979 and afterwards. Before prices went to those latter levels, the EU and the US would presumably do their utmost to bring them down. Japan could thus count on its western allies to act as tripwires and mobilize on oil prices long before it was forced to. Source: Global Public Media
Those prices will come to reality sooner than most people think, possibly during winter 2005. The latest would be at the start of the driving season next summer. What I know is that 2006 will determine the energy and economic future of the entire planet. You probably have remarked that I talk a lot about the United States in my blog. You should know that peak oil is hurting the United States just a little bit right now. For every economic disaster in history, the first nations touched are always the poorest. Let's see the economic situation in Zimbabwe, Africa.
Just to make my point clear, the situation in Zimbabwe is not typical. They have made many mistakes in the past years that have led to economic chaos in that country.
They are currently paying 36$ a gallon for gasoline.
that's right, 36$ a gallon. For those running a 36 MPG vehicle, that's 1$ a mile. If you run a SUV, that's a leg a mile.
By last week, nearly all buses and commuter taxis in the capitol, Harare , had stopped running, forcing tens of thousands to walk to work. While there are still a lot of private cars on the road, they are being fueled with $36 a gallon black market gasoline. Municipal services have stopped. There are no trash collections, no ambulances, or operating public works vehicles. Only one fire truck has any fuel left. The police immediately commandeer any fuel they come across. Clean water and electricity are available sporadically. Hospitals are out of supplies and the staff is fleeing. What was once one of the cleanest, most modern cities in Africa is nearly finished.
The long-term effects on the Zimbabwean economy are equally dire. The only sugar refinery is shut due to a lack of coal caused by a lack of fuel for the coal-transporting railroad. Production of tobacco, a major export crop, is already down to 30 percent of pre-land reform levels. It now appears that only about five percent of the normal crop will be planted this year.
Large numbers of Zimbabweans are fleeing the county in the midst of what is clearly an economic death spiral. Famine, mass movements of peoples, and political turmoil cannot be far behind. Source: Falls Church News-Press.
What will happen when the world oil supplies begin to decline next year, and oil prices reach 100$ a barrel? Airlines are already going down, a lot more will be going down. Globalization will start to fail, only global communication will make sense. No more buying California raisins if you are in Eastern Canada. No more buying France cheese if you live in western United States.
My suggestion to you is to support local markets. Even if the prices are a bit higher, try and purchase food that is grown locally, for they may be the only working companies after the coming crisis. Purchasing food grown locally will allow farmers to expand their farms and services. Eventually, the locally grown food will be cheaper.
Nearly all the commercial fertilizers are made from Natural gas. Chose who you buy from carefully. In this world, not all votes are counted, but you can be sure that every dollar is counted.
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