I am no expert at this, but I think you are getting technical analysis (TA) all confused with fundamental analysis (FA).
TA indicators are fairly short term, reflecting the "bullishness" or "bearishness" of the moment. TA will not help you in a big way if you plan to hold a stock longterm.
FA on the otherhand looks at the "fundamentals" of a company, it's longterm earnings record and earnings potential, the profit margin, it's PE ratio, etc.
FA analysis can also cover such things as the prospects of a specific industry, a company within an industry, and the company management.
The bullish indicators you saw when CSCO was over 80 reflected only the "bullishness of the moment" and not the long term potential of the company. The stock price is now pulling back, so the TA will look more bearish.
You need to decide how long your timeframe is, and what your tolarance is for short term paper losses.
I bought CSCO at $53 not very many months ago. I felt pretty stupid when the stock slid into the $40's. I felt like a genius when it crossed above $80. Right now I feel nervious. But CSCO is a great company, in the top position in a great industry. It is probably, in my opinion, one of the very best positioned companies in America.
|