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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: TimF who wrote (141578)10/3/2005 8:33:48 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (2) of 793963
 
Most people here favor market solutions to the energy problems we face. I would ordinariy be in favor of such solutions myself.

The problem is that they don't work, at least with respect to oil. And the reason they don't work is that they do not take into account the fact that we are probably in a peak oil situation, one in which alternatives cannot be readily developed with sufficient speed such that they will make a difference.

I see good counterarguments to the idea that consumption of oil should be regulated, and I certainly don't offer any panaceas, but I see no arguments, none, zero, zilch, for the proposition that market forces are going to be any help whatsoever with respect to the awful trade, foreign policy and national security issues we face as a result of our relentless consumption of imported oil.

I think that the expression "got us over a barrel" is certainly pertinent in a political sense. Market forces and cheap oil got us into a pickle. I surely don't see market forces coming to our rescue in the event some foreign policy dilemma results in the spigot getting turned off.

Substitution of foreign oil through conservation or alternative energy sources is the way to go but it won't happen until the price is so high that we have no choice. And if the price is high because some exporter has decided to try to pursue its political goals using the oil weapon, or if terrorists deny us a steady supply, the two most likely scenarios, then leaving market forces to deal with oil supply will seem very silly indeed.

We have to be prepared. And we're not. Preparation means being ready for a diminished supply be turning to other means of fueling our energy demands now.
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