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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: carranza2 who wrote (141587)10/6/2005 5:55:03 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (2) of 793958
 
To an extent the market solutions "won't work" if the market believes that we are not near "peak oil" but we really are. Its true that markets sometimes anticipate conditions for the future that do not come to pass, but I have more confidence in the markets getting it right then I do in government getting it right.

Even if they don't anticipate the future correctly they will, if allowed to act without too many fetters and abridgements, react to the "peak oil" situation more efficiently then any likely government response. Substitution and conservation will happen more often, probably even at today's prices if they don't go down much, and certainly at the higher prices that will come if your vision of the future in terms of oil supply is correct. Even if we are nearing "peak oil" it is very unlikely to be a cliff, but rather a plateau with a gradually fall off at the other end.

And if the price is high because some exporter has decided to try to pursue its political goals using the oil weapon, or if terrorists deny us a steady supply, the two most likely scenarios, then leaving market forces to deal with oil supply will seem very silly indeed.

If someone tries to use the "oil weapon". 1 - There are other sources so while there will be an impact it will only go so far, and 2 - If it does have an impact it will be to raise prices which will help advance what you are calling for, conservation and substitution, through the operation of market forces. Nothing silly about that at all.

Tim
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