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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (43077)10/8/2005 4:38:35 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
One comment about viral resistance to antiviral drugs.

Because of natural selection, the "wild type" virus is almost always "more fit". Because viruses reproduce sloppily, making frequent mistakes, use of an anti-viral drug will eventually give rise to a drug resistant strain, and through natural selection this strain will become more prevalent if the "drug pressure" is maintained through continued use.

This drug-resistant virus will usually be less fit and less of a problem. Switch to a different drug and a new viral strain will emerge, resistant to the new drug but often susceptible to the original discontinued drug. This is why multiple drug therapy is more effective than single drug therapy - whether you're treating virus, bacteria, or other pathogens. Its like adding additional tumblers to a lock. But viruses mutate more quickly and easily than do bacteria.

Due to widespread unauthorized use in China of Amantadine in poultry feed, Bird Flu is resistant to Amantadine. I understand the Chinese official responsible for this insanity is now in prison. Some strains are resistant to Tamiflu. So why did I buy Tamiflu, if I have not yet bought Relenza? Tamiflu production is subject to a bottleneck which cannot be easily amended. Thus I need Tamiflu today while it is still available.

If the situation becomes more serious, I will also obtain Relenza. I might even break down and buy some soon, since my health insurance pays for it - why not? Governments have pressuring Pfizer to package Relenza in an injectible form rather than an inhaler. This would get more drug into your body, more reliably -- especially given that Bird Flu victims can barely breath. If I used it, I would probably break open an inhaler pack and inject it, mixed with sterile water.

I already have Memantine, the metabolized form of Amantadine. I also have access to a full line of injectable immune cytokines such as interferons and interleukins.

Its also important to realize that the Bird Flu virus, like the 1918 flu virus, is very deadly precisely because it is an avian virus, not yet well adapted to humans. As it spreads through humans, natural selection will give rise to a variant which reproduces better in humans, and in the process it will become less lethal -- a virus which does not kill the host can out-compete viruses which quickly kill the host.
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