South Asian Earthquake Will Impact The War On Terrorists, Tax Cuts.
By bloggle
I rarely make predictions, as I have found that when I do, I'm invariably wrong. But I think that this one is such an obvious guess, I'm willing to go out on a limb.
The earthquake in Kashmir, now estimated to have killed between 20,000 and 30,000 people so far will heighten the crisis in the Musharraf government, could hasten his overthrow and will adversely impact the war effort, possible dealing it an incalculable blow.
The Pakistani Army will have it's sites retrained on the recovery effort, allowing Taliban and al Qaeda breathing room. The American military, already strained will no doubt send help regardless, but whether it can ramp up as it did in the tsunami will remain to be seen.
For his part, Musharraf is playing this in customary fashion, notifying the US that if aid doesn't some soon and in overwhelming amount, the view of America in that area will be harmed to an even greater degree. But he has a point. Both the Taliban and al Qaeda can move very fast to offer assistance on the ground and regain a toe-hold among the people in the province.
The high death toll is probably (I have no data on this) mostly due to substandard (at best) building practices. Think NOLA levees times hundreds.
There are some hopeful noises:
New Delhi - The shared tragedy confronting India and Pakistan in disputed Kashmir could pay dividends for the fragile peace process, experts said on Sunday after a massive earthquake left thousands dead there.
"It will certainly help in furthering the peace process," former Indian foreign secretary and ambassador to Washington Lalit Mansingh told AFP.
Joint relief efforts could boost confidence, Mansingh said, noting that Indian and Pakistani civilians as well as the troops that face off across the Kashmiri border had lost their lives in Saturday morning's massive quake.
"This is a common tragedy. There is nothing political about this. It can help bring people together," Mansingh added.
The nuclear-armed rivals are engaged in a peace process that has seen two major rounds of talks since January 2004 focused on divided Kashmir - the trigger for two of their three wars since 1947.
So far pledges of aid has been underwhelming, but that has been the pattern in the past. Once again, the question of money and where to find it will be raised and debated. There will be arguments raised about tax hikes. Where, indeed will all this money come from? Look for some moderate Republicans to float and idea to alter the tax cuts, not necessarily reversing them, but adjusting higher-bracket tax rates at least. |
