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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: russwinter who wrote (43114)10/10/2005 6:23:45 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
that link from my last post shows the spec net short positions (both small and large specs) as the largest in the past year. i think it is important to look at the trend to get an idea of the relative value of the net position. obviously a 52-week high in shorts says something about the sentiment. the link you have includes options, which i am not sure about--that is, since options normally have a sub-one delta (compared to futures), a position of one option contract cannot be simplistically equated with a position of one future contract. i think it would be necessary to know the total delta value of the option contracts if one is to mix them with the futures. also, who knows what the trend in it is. so i would prefer the chart i linked, since it shows an apples-to-apples comparison of futures contracts with the same delta value, over a 52-week period. and the trend is most definitively a massive short. (conversely, producers have their biggest net long position over the same period.)
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