Yes, regardless of how one uses the COT here, the general tenor for energy prices seems favorable. Basically, the only way that prices were capped post hurricanes, was to get specs to liquidate long positions, and to use emergency strategic reserves (including foreign refined product). Even the so called "oil glut" ought to disappear fast, with a million barrels a day lost from the GOM going forward. Odds are we get a price spike with just a normal winter.
I'm inclined to play this concept with shorts of exposed consumer and travel dependent stocks (put strategies) though, as opposed to energy longs. Throw in an avian flu scare or outbreak, with debt servicing problems, and names like CCL, HOT, COF, casinos, WFMI, mall based retailers, restarants, etc, will be very exposed. |
