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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Graham Seibert who wrote (4780)9/12/1997 9:47:00 AM
From: Todd Daniels   of 13594
 
>Never saw such a bearish lot on SI

For me, anyway, it's not question of zero versus the moon.
Just current valuation. Obviously AOL does have potential
that's worth something. But if it doesn't begin REALLY (i.e. cleanly
without mucked up income statements) to deliver bottom-line wise...

Problem is the bulls and AOL have been great at keeping things
going on story basis. Already we're seeing "don't look at FY98,
the REAL action starts in FY99-00". (In 10/96 when AOL changed its
business plan and announced write-off of deferred marketing they
said the same thing about FY97). And they're saying "well, the
CSRV deal could muck things up for a few quarters, so be prepared
to discount that". Of course, there's 2 reporting periods to go
before CSRV even closes; and anyway conscientious analyses would
try to separate out CSi negative impacts and assess the core biz.

But no. Once again it's AOL changing the model (out of ANS) and
bulls saying "it's great, but we have to give things more time to
validate our valuation"
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