Re: Therefore the ostracizing of Turkey portends the unconscious fancy of a European-Turkish war....
You have an overactive imagination. Hollywood wants/needs you! ;~)
This is no "Hollywood stuff":
[...]
Diplomatic efforts by the United Nations and the United States to avert conflict over Cyprus have been hampered by several factors, including the recent decisions by the European Union to deny Turkey membership in the EU and to begin admission talks with Cyprus; the US sale of MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles to Turkey and Greece and the role of the United States as the leading arms supplier to both countries, which are among the world's leading arms importers; contradictory political and commercial interests and crises that compete for international attention; and limited international influence on Russian, Cypriot, and Turkish decision making.
There are several possible scenarios for the evolution of this dispute. The most dangerous would be for Turkey to carry out its threat to attack ships carrying missile components while they are in transit, or to strike the batteries as they are being deployed on Cyprus. The conflict could escalate to regional war if Greece retaliates against Turkey as pledged in its Joint Defense Doctrine with Cyprus. In response to Turkish threats to destroy the missile systems while in transit, Russia has said that an attack on Russian ships would be an act of war. Although it is far less likely than a Greek military response, if Russian technicians or officials are among the casualties of such an attack, Russia might also respond militarily.
The most propitious but least likely scenario would be the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement on the demilitarization of Cyprus, which would include cancellation of the S-300PMU-1 sale. More probable routes by which conflict could be averted include the establishment of a UN- or US-enforced no-fly zone over the island. Greek Cypriot sources have indicated that they would consider canceling delivery of the batteries in exchange for a flight ban, and the United States reportedly has offered to enforce a moratorium on military flights over the island. Turkish and Russian officials, however, have rejected these proposals. Alternatively, the S-300PMU-1s might be shipped to Cyprus but held in storage rather than being deployed. Again, despite indications of support for this idea by Greek and Greek Cypriot officials, both Turkey and Russia are likely to reject such an alternative. Finally, one or both sides might back away from conflict; Turkey could refrain from carrying out attacks against the S-300PMU-1s, or Cyprus and Russia could agree on delaying delivery of the missiles, or on canceling the deal entirely. This alternative might involve Cyprus' acquisition of an air-defense system with a shorter range.
In all but the most optimistic of scenarios, the increase in tension is apt to lead to escalating military preparations and acquisitions. While the interests of none of the actors involved in the S-300PMU-1 dispute would be served by military conflict, the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation are serious. The pattern of reciprocal provocation, belligerent rhetoric, and military brinksmanship should arouse international concern that these Mediterranean states – armed with advanced missile systems by foreign suppliers – may be headed toward war.
Michael Barletta, July 1998.
© Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute of International Studies
cns.miis.edu |
