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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Graham Seibert who wrote (4780)9/12/1997 10:07:00 AM
From: steve lipson   of 13594
 
>Never saw such a bearish lot on SI, and you obviously know your game.

If they're so smart, why ain't they rich?

Go backwards through this thread and you'll find they were singing the same tune about why the stock would plunge from the 40s, fall off a cliff from the 50s and had formed a double top for sure in the 60s.

You'll find lots of old predictions about membership defections, how the various accounting shenanigans and changes would sink the stock and casting doubt on the ability of AOL to sell any advertising -- all of which proved to be far off base.

AOL still has to do a lot right to realize the vision of being a dominant cyberspace brand, so it is a speculative stock at best. I bought at 40 in July 96. I haven't been tempted (too much) to sell and take my profits, but I also haven't been tempted to buy more during this year's climb.

I've been posting on this thread intermittently for a year now, and my basic point has always been pretty much the same: There's a lot not to like about this stock, but when you add up all the well-known failings and measure that against the accomplishments AOL has had just to survive and grow to this point, plus the nearly sky's-the-limit potential, this stock continues to look riskier for the shorts than the longs IMHO.
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