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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (43277)	10/11/2005 8:06:46 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Let me tell you about demand destrustru by: Todd1956 10/11/05 12:47 pm Msg: 129408 of 129624 I just got back from the largest oilfield supplier in the area and was trying to buy some plastic gas line to hook up some more wells. I was told there is no pipe available at all today. They were trying to order from several different suppliers without a commitment for delivery for any supply at any price... There is a tremendous demand for product that CANNOT be filled due to the lack of product due mainly to production curtailments from the hurricane disruptions. Here we all sit with production to be hooked up ahead of winter and no way to get it to market. DEMAND is voracious at any price for this product and it cannot be had. This kind of situation seems to be forecasting the NG situation going forward as my personal friend who runs CABOT says that they cannot get enough NG in their LA plants to fill the current orders on file and that they are in a similiar situation that they can pass pricing along right now but cannot produce the product due to supply disrupotions. IMHO the winter demand for NG will reflect this same type of senario once the cold weather takes hold . I cannot believe that people are going to sit around their homes shivering for a few measly hundred dollars a month more than last year. I also believe that businesses and surely schools will continue to heat their buildings to a comfortable level as there is nothing worse than a complaining employee or non-attentive students . Try and get the necessary productivity out of either if they are too cold to care about doing their work. It is with these , and I'm sure many more similiar cases, that I'm firmly still in the bullish camp for NG going forward since I believe that the demand is there but cannot be filled due to lack of current supply. Still sticking to the crazy idea of $18-20 NG printed on a close and a $30 NG intrady spike if the weather is colder than normal for any 4 week period this winter. Time will tell how good the crystal ball is working but so far its been pretty clear to me this year.. Gotta go pack as we are heading to the lake property in NC tomorrow for an extended foliage tour and some construction prep work on another future vacation home paid for by being long NG contracts since the April-May shoulder period. Something tells me the returns from this shoulder period could even be better, for those of us long energy that is. TRADE WELL and PROSPER...TODD

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