View from the Center and Left Message Board

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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Solon who wrote (4248)	10/12/2005 9:00:34 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) of 540793

You hit on the central question for the thread:"there really is a polarization of political belief which leaves no room for any power from the center". And you are exactly right that Bush was "the leader of either of those extreme political camps (I trust "extreme" is not inaccurate) must appeal to an extreme populace in order to get elected. The problem is, Bush cannot successfully govern with 51% of the 2004 votes and a popularity rating under 40% now. The Republicans can't force their agenda on the country with fewer than 60 senators and only a modest majority in the House of Representatives. So the political style of extreme partisanship, also known as "appealing to the base" is quickly becoming bankrupt. An administration based on ideological zealotry cannot implement its full agenda, cannot create the conditions for its faction to stay in government longer than 8-12 years, and cannot convince enough voters to stick with them long-term (i.e. for decades). As extremism loses the appeal it held since 2001, political leaders will have to turn not to the extremes, but back to the center for support. Here is the math. Each party has about one-third of the electorate always behind them. In 2004, Bush expanded his base a bit and convinced just enough moderates to vote for him to get 51% of all the votes. Now Bush's base is contracting, and he has support from less than 1/3 of the middle of the US electorate. Either a new Republican leader comes up with an even more appealing extremism to reassemble that 51% winning coalition, or a more moderate Republican take the 33% core and aims to get 2/3 of the moderate middle by appealing less to extremism and more to moderate consensus. In the current political climate, the latter strategy has a better chance for success in 2008, IMHO. The Democrats then have to decide if they will pursue a carbon copy of Bush's 2004 strategy on the left (what Dean and Hillary have advocated) or try to be the party of the middle instead.

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