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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (43347)10/12/2005 1:55:12 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Date: Wed Oct 12 2005 12:08
trotsky (of course) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
not to forget, the insiders of these companies, always all-out bullish on the outlook in their public pronouncements, have been record sellers of their stocks in recent months.
oh yes, as Bill Fleckenstein would say, they all just needed to paint the garage.

Date: Wed Oct 12 2005 12:05
trotsky (homebuilders& real estate holding cos..) ID#248269:
Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
the plunge continues. evidence that the bubble is keeling over is beginning to proliferate - near record inventories of unsold homes and condominiums will soon get even worse, as developers have overstretched themselves enormously as they always do at housing boom tops by means of acquiring overpriced land on credit and building at a record pace. as i've mentioned before, these companies have had negative cash flows for the past year and a half, even as they all reported big earnings gains. on average, the debt on their balance sheets has increased by 50% over the past year alone.
they were accidents waiting to happen before, and now they're about to actually become accidents.
many of the stocks have already suffered big declines, but complacency vis-a-vis this negative development remains firmly in place.
the consensus is 'don't worry, we might slow down a bit, but no big problems for this market are in the pipeline'. in the meantime, all those houses on the market are just sitting and sitting and sitting...and there's more of them every day.
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