Like most people in Britain, I am an expert in listening to news from government experts and scientists who argue up is down, left is right, and black is white. We all listened to this talk for quite some period of time..
news.bbc.co.uk
The problem was identified in 1984, no proper action was taken until 1996. During the time up till 1996 there was numerous government officials and scientists who argued that there was no problem.
Marc Siegel sounds very much like those "experts". From his link.
And even if we accept the Spanish flu scenario, health conditions in 1918 were far worse in most of the world than they are now. Many people lived in squalor; 17 million influenza deaths occurred in India, versus about half a million deaths in the U.S. There were no flu vaccinations, no antiviral drugs, and containment by isolating infected individuals wasn't effective, largely because of poor information and poor compliance. Today's media reach could be a useful tool to aid compliance. Of course, the concern that air travel can spread viral infections faster may be valid, but infected migratory birds were sufficient in 1918.
In some monstrous bending of the truth he suggests that, in this modern high tech age with cyber phones and TV's, we would be safer then in 1918, or those in the USA would be safer.
The facts available paint a very different picture. Using his words.. If we accept the Spanish flu scenario...
-We now have both wild birds AND modern air travel as spreading vectors. The wild birds were more then sufficient in 1918.
-Healthy young humans were vunerable as the over reaction by thier immune systems killed them. We have lots and lots of young healthy people today.
-Only about two billion of us have proper sanitation, modern living styles, good food etc. That leaves more then 4 billion (more then twice the population of the world in 1918) who live lives without any of our modern advantages in life. That is one huge pool of people for a virus to tune into, who do not have access to proper health facilities.
-Even in Western countries, there are not sufficient supplies of drugs to treat a whole nation under threat.
-We (UK and USA) currently do not demonstrate any ability to organise defences or containment for many problems, never mind a pandemic. As said, BSE was discovered in the UK in 1984. No effective action was taken until 1996. Marc Siegel suggests we're all ready to go to deal with any problem. I see nothing in the news to suggest either the governments of USA or UK are ready and able to deal with a serious outbreak.
So do you see why I am most skeptical of anything says? He talks a soothing talk, but the facts tell a different story. The same sort of B/S went on for years in the UK with BSE. |
