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Technology Stocks : ESLR - Evergreen Solar
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To: Jim Oravetz who wrote (15)10/13/2005 10:55:33 PM
From: Randy Ellingson   of 112
 
Well now, ESLR has certainly come a long ways and for me is an interesting story. The industry landscape has many interesting aspects now.

There are huge incentives in place in Germany (expected, I believe, to spread to Spain soon). There are also sizable manufacturers in Germany (among others), including Q-Cells with whom Evergreen is partnering on a 30 MW plant being built and expected to be operation by summer of 2006. Potential expansion to 120 MW at that site.

Japan has several of the largest manufacturers of solar cells, so in all, there *is* substantial competition in the field.

But an interesting twist is the development of a silicon-efficient technology (string ribbon, in which a band of thin Si is pulled from a melt using two wires/strings to define the edges). Breakage is an issue and the severity of that should become clear within a year or so. But the material efficiency is critical because there's a dearth of silicon which is both hampering production and driving prices higher. My guess is that since ESLR is still somewhat small, having Q-Cells as a partner may be very helpful as they continue to grow.

From a revenues standpoint, it seems they have their work cut out for them to merit the current price within three or four years; and the bigger wildcard is whether their potential competitive advantage will yield profits to merit further share price growth.
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