Surely we have information Tamiflu vs H5N1 effect now, since there have been over 60 deaths, which occurred while Tamiflu was available, and presumably used in at least some of the cases.
On the prediction of an accurate death count, it doesn't matter too much whether the death rate is 20% or 40% or 60%. Any of those numbers is bad enough that most other matters, such as the price of oil, and whether the death count in Iraq has reached 2000, or 3000, will not be a big deal.
At present, with Tamiflu actually available, the death rate is running at 1 in 3, which is down from the original 70%. When Tamiflu stocks run out, the death rate might rise again. Since Tamiflu is said to be effective, it's quite obvious that without treatment the death rate will rise.
A yacht sailing around the ocean would be a reasonably safe environment, provided he never pulls into a port, or at least waits until vaccines are available.
Mqurice |
